Category Archives for "Trend Trading"

Cowabunga System Final Review

After 12 weeks of forward testing, the Cowabunga System achieved a net 27.9% return:

cowabunga system performance return

Annualised, this works out to a 111.68%​ return after 12 months. 

Now ​I should preface this by mentioning that past performance does not guarantee future returns... but given what I've experienced in the past 12-week of testing, my opinion is that if you put some work into it, the Cowabunga System is almost certainly a profitable one.

Here's a chart showing​ the percentage gain/loss for each of the 88 trades taken over the past 12-weeks:

trade gains and losses

Cowabunga System Forward Test Statistics

Win rate: 61.4%

Average trade profit: 1%​

Average trade loss: -0.9%​

A few final notes and pointers:

  • On numerous occasions, the market price initially moved in my direction before reversing and stopping out a trade. I would have gotten much better results if I'd shifted the stop loss to the entry price after the market moved in my direction.
  • Interestingly, this system seems to be mostly unaffected by news announcements. In fact, I had a few winning trades based on price surges following them. This might be worth looking into.
  • I noticed that a significant number of losing trades could have been easily avoided if I skipped taking trades when the 4h moving averages were converging (but still showing a trend). Of course, this means that I would be taking fewer trades, but anecdotally, I'd say that the system would be overall more profitable. 

Is the Cowabunga System worth following?

I would say yes, most definitely. With a positive winning percentage and a larger average win compared to the average loss, this system has a positive expectancy based on my experience with it.

Assuming that the statistics I've collected are representative of the Cowabunga System, a trader can only screw up by over-leveraging his trades and going through a prolonged drawdown period.

​On the whole, I would give the this system two thumbs up and would recommend it to anyone who looking to be a trend following day trader.

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Cowabunga System Week 12 Results

This was another difficult week for the Cowabunga System, as there were plenty of false breakouts and whipsaws in the GBPUSD.

I was honestly a little concerned since last week was a losing one, and I was wondering if this week might follow suit,

Other the the regular news announcements, we'll be seeing the ECB interest rate decision and the press conference afterwards. While no one expects any major interest rate changes, the market expects the ECB to at least remain dovish.

During the press conference, ECB chairman Mario Draghi indeed delivered a dovish statement, but the market reaction surprised everyone. In particular, the EURUSD and GBPUSD rallied 100 pips and 120 pips respectively, before reversing their gains within the next hour.

Such was the volatile trading condition​s this week.


Cowabunga System Week 11 Results

This week was packed with important news events from both the UK and US, with the most important being the UK interest rate announcement on Thursday.


  • ​CPI
  • Official Bank Rate
  • Monetary Policy Summary


  • FOMC Member Dudley Speech
  • PPI
  • Retail Sales
  • CPI
  • UoM Consumer Sentiment

So... did this week turn out to be another profitable one for the Cowabunga System?

Unfortunately, no​.

Due to the many whipsaws in the GBPUSD,​ the system suffered its biggest losing week since the forward test began.

But how big was the loss?​

Read on to find out...


Cowabunga System Week 7 Results

After last week's extremely dovish announcements by the European Central Bank (ECB), this week we'll see the response of United States Federal Reserve on Wednesday.

This FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting will be accompanied by a press conference, so we can certainly expect increased volatility levels in the middle of the week.

Before then, few markets will be expected to move​ as everyone awaits the Fed's interest rate decision.

So far, the Cowabunga System has produced 6 consecutive weeks of profit, with a percentage gain just shy of 20%.

Will this week be yet another winning week? Or ​will we finally see a losing one?

Read on to find out!​


Cowabunga System Week 4 Results

This trading week started with a bang!

Over the weekend the Mayor of London, Boris Johnson, expressed his support for the Brexit camp which unleashed a wave of GBP selling across the board.

Virtually each and every GBP pair opened with a gap and volatility shot through the roof.

Thankfully, the Cowabunga System protects against such situations by having a clear (and small) stop loss, so these kind of events should have little negative impact on the trading account... or so I thought!

This week turned out to be the most exciting week of testing so far, so read on to find out what happened!​